'OK, we read about a bear market but what should we actually DO?'
That's the one sentence summary of a multitude of e-mails from readers after the recent interview with Monster Bear David Tice. Most readers feel, quite rightly, that bear actions such as selling short, owning gold, etc. are not for them. Indeed, although many were tempted to sell all stocks and hold cash, they worried that such extremes weren't the appropriate response.
And that's good.
Being an indecisive mugwump who avoids extremes isn't all bad. While it won't garner celebrity as an investor it will probably keep us solvent. Similarly, while it won't produce that Incandescent-Moment-of-Being-Completely-Right on an investment bet, it also won't produce the dark moment of realizing that you've been disastrously wrong.
So what DO we do if we fear a significant market correction or a major bear market? Here are some guides to action:
• We don't go to extremes or become slaves to an idea. Just as it was
once said of Jane Austen that she had "a mind so fine that no idea
could violate it," pragmatism and diversification should run
portfolios, not concepts. Gold bugs, slaves to a monetary idea, have
awaited a financial apocalypse for decades, missing the greatest
bull market in history.
• We accept the idea that we'll always be somewhat wrong because we'll
also be somewhat right. If you own more stocks than ever, this means
you'll sell down to a lower level. It does not mean that you will
sell all stocks. It means that if you were at 75 percent stocks, you
might sell down to 50 percent. Calibration is the watchword, not sea
change.
• Cash, mere cash, can multiply your opportunity. An established 401k
investor can reduce risk by holding money market funds equal to one
or two years of future contributions. This would reduce risk of loss
before a decline while multiplying gain as you feed that same cash
back to equities over a period of one or two years.
• Reduce risk--- but remain in equities. This is no guarantee that we
will avoid losing money, but it can help to avoid highly speculative
stocks--- the ones that can collapse nearly overnight.
Let me give you a personal example of risk reducing. Late in 1997 I started getting interested in fiber-optics equipment stocks and began to follow Ciena, a prime mover in the splitting of a light waves into sections of spectrum that multiply the ability to carry digitized information, Ciena was a poster child for the Internet Future.
In the fall of 1998, after the companies' merger with Tellabs had fallen apart and it had lost a major sale to a competitor, the share price fell from a high of $85 to $13. I bought some shares.
Early this March the shares peaked at $177. I'd love to tell you that I sold at $177 but I didn't. I sold a few weeks ago at $90 and immediately suffered deep remorse as they bounced back to $125.
Why not just hold on?
Relative risk. According to the earnings forecast data on the Microsoft Investor website, Ciena is selling at nearly 240 times estimated earnings for this year and is expected to grow at 30 percent a year over the next 5 years. MCIWorldcom, a larger company that will also participate in the Internet Future (albeit less dramatically), is selling at 23 times estimated earnings and is expected to grow at nearly 28 percent a year over the next 5 years. MCIWorldcom is selling for one-tenth the earnings multiple of Ciena even though its future growth could be the same.
So I'm now a shareholder in MCIWorldcom. My hope is that I've reduced risk a lot more than I've reduced opportunity.
Bottom line: there are lots of ways to reduce risk. The important thing is to pick one and do it.
Scott Burns has covered the changing world of personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years. Today, he ranks as one of the five most widely read personal finance writers in the country.
Scott began his career as a newspaper columnist at the Boston Herald in 1977 where he was also the financial editor. Nationally syndicated in 1981 and now distributed by Universal Press, the column appears in newspapers from Boston to Seattle. In 1985 he joined the staff of the Dallas Morning News where his column quickly became one of the most widely read features in the paper. He left the Dallas Morning News in 2006 to become one of the founders of AssetBuilder and its Chief Investment Strategist.
Burns is a graduate of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1962). He has written four books, including "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004) coauthored with economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff. His fourth book, also coauthored with Kotlikoff, will be published this spring by Simon & Schuster. "Spend Til' the End" uses consumption smoothing to demonstrate the errors of conventional financial planning.
His business experience includes working as a staffer for a major consulting company and service as a director and audit chairman of a NASDAQ listed manufacturing company. He and his wife divide their time between Dallas and Santa Fe, New Mexico.