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Promises, Promises, Promises

By Scott Burns and Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Here's your quiz question for the day: Who is the biggest liar of them all?

The answer will surprise you and, yes, you're allowed to consult your daily newspaper or favorite Web sites. Gird yourself. You may be overwhelmed by the number of candidates.

Here are just a few:

  • Bear Stearns engaged in abusive and illegal loan collection practices.
  • Bank of America, UBS, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Wachovia deceived investors by selling them risky auction-rate securities as perfectly safe.
  • GMAC Bank and other student loan companies engaged in deceptive advertising.
  • IndyMac Bank routinely issued liar loans until it went broke.
  • Countrywide engaged in deceitful lending.
  • JPMorgan, Citigroup and CIBC engaged in securities fraud.
  • The supposed independent rating companies -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch -- gave bond insurers triple-A ratings to fatten their wallets, when D-minus was what they deserved.
  • HSBC and Citigroup specialized in structured investment vehicles to conceal their risky mortgage holdings.
  • Freddie Mac failed to fully disclose its portfolio losses.
  • AIG hid huge losses on its credit default swaps.
  • Lehman Bros. failed to come clean about its real estate losses.
  • Lehman Bros., Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch competed with one another in developing abusive tax-evasion schemes.

In addition to conning the public, these companies conned each other and themselves. That's why so many are going under.

So let's ask a rude question. Where did they learn to make deception a basic operating procedure?

Answer: Washington, D.C., the home of the federal government and the source of current efforts to rescue our economy.

When it comes to deception, misleading accounting and lack of disclosure, Uncle Sam is the father of all con artists. Indeed, as large as the current crisis is, all the losses racked up by the Nitwit Sector pale when compared to what our government has done.

Consider these parallels:

  • Structured investment vehicles. The banks, following in Enron's brilliant footsteps, got in trouble with "structured investment vehicles" -- off-balance-sheet ventures that increased their risk but weren't visible. The government parallel is "government-sponsored organizations," GSOs for short. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two GSOs just taken over, have just saddled our government with an additional $5 trillion in debt, which, of course, is being kept off the books. We've also inherited Fannie's and Freddie's assets; they should also be booked, except no one seems to know precisely what they are or what they're worth.
  • Official debt versus real obligations. The official federal debt is some $9.5 trillion, of which about $5.3 trillion is held by the investing public, and $4.2 trillion is held in government accounts such as the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.

But the official liabilities pale in comparison with the off-book entitlements -- obligations to pay current and future Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits.

Yes, the government can count on future tax receipts to help cover these obligations and its other spending. Unfortunately, there is a gigantic gap between the value of future tax collections and the value of future entitlement payments. Economists call this the fiscal gap -- the present value difference between the government's projected future spending and its future tax receipts.

The U.S. Treasury actually calculated this figure in 2002 when Paul O'Neill was running the shop. It was $45 trillion. No one learned this because O'Neill was fired before he could disclose it in the 2003 president's budget. The study he commissioned was censored two days after he was given the boot. It may be the main reason he was terminated. We discussed this gap in detail in "The Coming Generational Storm" (MIT Press, 2004).

Democrats are no better when it comes to honest discussion of our long-term finances. The Clinton administration censored a similar study in its first term after it had been carefully prepared by the Office of Management and Budget. Today, while Democrats decry the Republican administration for failing to foster reforms for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they have conveniently forgotten their opposition to reform when it was proposed in 2003.

Today, things are worse. The passage of Medicare Part D alone has added about $8 trillion in unfunded liabilities. To put that in perspective, the expected cost of providing pills for seniors is right in the ballpark with the unfunded liabilities of the entire Social Security retirement program. Today the fiscal gap is near $70 trillion.

The $70 trillion fiscal gap is the real measure of our government's indebtedness. To put the figure in perspective, the Federal Reserve recently reckoned the net worth of every household in America at a mere $56 trillion.

But politicians of both parties continue the convenient fiction of our $5 trillion-plus in public federal debt. Coming up with $70 trillion is impossible without radical reform of entitlements. That's the last thing Sen. McCain or Sen. Obama wants to discuss in the run-up to the election.

So Washington's deception remains business as usual. It continues to provide a terrible example to Wall Street and the general public.

If our indignant politicians want Wall Street to clean up its act, they need to set a proper example. They can do this by presenting an accurate accounting of our government's promises and commitments. That means presenting the country's long-term fiscal-gap analysis on an ongoing basis. They also need to tell the public how much our children's taxes will have to rise or how much their benefits will have to be cut, if no action is taken.

As things now stand, our children are facing massive tax increases -- far beyond anything they can pay. Continuing inaction and deceit in Washington will surely backfire on all of us, as the years go by with no entitlement reform. The consequence of inaction will be a perpetually weak dollar, high interest rates and high inflation as our government prints massive quantities of money to pay bills it can't afford.

Comments

 

worriedinTX said:

You might decry Clinton's refusal to allow full disclosure about the state of the budget, but from what I read and understand about this particular debacle, it roosts in the Republican tree. Without it, prudent policy and a country engaged in creating new business by moving away from fossil fuels and a tax structure that has business should a fair share of the tax burden, the US might have reversed the gravity of the situation.

But this unknown toxic money pit together with the escalation in debt from the Iraq War which is totally off the books so to speak--again brought to you by the Bush presidency--we don't have much of a fighting chance.

The major reason that  the unregulated greed exploiting the "free" market system in the US was allowed to begin should be tied to the repeal of the Glass-Stegal Act and the creation/ implementation of the Gram-Leach-Biley Act which basically let loose the dogs of Wall Street on the soft, unregulated belly of our economy under the totally oblivious gaze but decidedly welcomed support of Allan Greenspan with artificially cheap money.

Paul O'Neil should be the man in charge of sorting through this dire fire sale--he is one of the few men who chose to walk the walk AND talk the talk. Perhaps  David Einhorn could ride shotgun on that mission as well. He has made enough people angry that he has nothing to lose from what I read.

September 26, 2008 10:08 PM
 

Spork said:

I couldn't agree more.

And not only did businesses learn poor business practices from the government, but consumers did too.  

Our parents learned the value of assets and the problems of debt when they lived through the Great Depression.  Yet most of the following generation learned that debt cures everything and assets are almost unnecessary.  Where in the world could they have learned that?

September 26, 2008 10:45 PM
 

8314ever said:

So for someone that is from 'the next' generation (early 30s)...are you still saying to keep up the diverse, dollar-cost-averaging and blindly follow the ups/downs till the STORM is realized and hope we can pull out in time?  Sounds like growing a business of my own and then fleeing before the elder/more populous generation starts cashing in on Part D and depleting Social Security is a better bet (or at least has a chance).  Either way, politics doesn't seem like it will change till its far too late.

September 26, 2008 11:43 PM
 

scottb said:

The best read I can think of on political excess is Kevin Phillips, e.g. "Wealth and Democracy," Arrogant Capital," and other books. And for this mess most of the fingers will be pointed at the Republican party. They did, however, have lots of help from Democrats. While Democrats are saying they don't want to saddle the taxpayer with $700 billion of new obligations, you have to wonder why they were so eager to pass the Prescription Drug bill (Medicare part D) which already has more than $8 trillion in unfunded liabilities and would have cost still more had they gotten the bill they wanted.
October 1, 2008 1:40 PM
 

Limoman said:

Well, Maybe. Scott: All this Doom and Gloam is probably correct, but It's only " Part of the Story". and I know you and others will not like this, butt..? Taxing our Kids? Sure, why not? Our parents did it to Us Baby Boomers didn't they? Aren't our SS and Other taxes supporting them in their Senior Yrs now? I think we have Far Too many tapping into the Program and many should be Kicked out and Just Let them Die On the Streets..to send a Message.. Their is No Free Lunch Here .. Kids going to pay more taxes? > Seems to me that they Should pay more, why? > The Sctructor we set up for them to live in, has provded a Nice & Safe Life to grow up in, hasn't it? > Are they not Educated Twice as Much as Most of Their Parents ? > Aren't they Making At Least Twice as Much? > Isn't The Word 'Trillion" now replaced The Old Billion just due to Inflation alone? > We've ogt some 180 Million People Working and making the average Income of How Much? @ $30k ? > Did you know Our New AirCraft Carrier The Ronald Regan cost $250,000 a DAY ! And unless you want more 9/11's and Worse? We best Add More to our Milatary Budget and Enact some kind of Draft system were EVERYONE Serves Our Country at some Level or Another ..Regardless of "Hiding " behind college to stay out.. > And that $700+ Billion 'bail Out" may or may not end up being Half to Less than that when the dust settles in a Few Yrs Ahead.. (Did we not MAKE MONEY from the S&L Bail out? ) > Would you not Loan your Kids Business $ to keep them Afloat and not Living off your $? > I have no problem 'Giving Back" $5,000 to a Country or Business that Made me $50,000 over the past 5 yrs.. and To Have and Keep a $50k Yr Job.... Unless of course, you want AMERICA be Invaded Like Georgia has recently Been and then How much is your Money worth then? And as a Former Self employed Businessman..Staying In Debt was the Prime motivator to succeed..My Fellow Businessemen Who Didn't, became Complacient and Only Achieved 50% as much as they should have..Some went broke ...being too lazy.. A Happy Balanced Btween everything is the way to go..Owe ALittle, Save Alittle and Live Alittle.. Either Higher Taxes Are Needed to fund all the Free Services everyone else wants to have.. Othewise, Our Gov't should Be in the Self Employment Business and Make Money from everything from Our natural rescources to it's Products to pay for it.. and Giving away Hundreds of Billions a Yr to Other Countries and even our Enemies may be at the Root of the Problem for us being in So Much debt...? Being Greedy and selfish On one hand and wanting to Save the World is our #1 Problem.. Those that didn't Serve our Country and Work In the Real World , don't belong Voting, nor Making any decisions for those of us that Did and Do.. Don't care if they are Housewives to Kids In College... and everyone Inbetween... Not counting Shelling out over $300 BILLION a Yr for Illegals in our country..! And We only have ourselves to blame for the Leaders we have! Neither Obama nor McCain is the Best of the Rest, they are the Best of the Worse..IMO.. But, It's our Congress at the Key to our future, Not Our Presidents to make changes for the Better.. As for Investing? If the Pro's Know so much? Why couldn't they See this and The last Bear Market Comming and tell Everyone to (a) Change their Ports to Most or ALL Bonds and /or ( b) Buy Short Funds..? That's Not Market Timing, that just knowing when to Go into a Safe harbor when you know a Hurricane/Typhone is comming ! and Common Sense.. And strive just Lower one's expecations to earn More than a 10% Apy and Forget about Going For the Gold all the time.. All that has done is line everyone in the Investing Business's Pockets.. I support and Pass on to others, your Conservative Portfolio's and Not the others..Unless they are making and saving enough to fund their Retirement Adequately and ahve extra $ to Gamble with... then your Other Higher Risk/reward Ports.. But, i think they are far to the Right on using Mostly VanGuard Funds.., since histroically there are Better.. , alot better out there..
October 10, 2008 6:58 AM
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